The Shifting 2008 Landscape

[Sid]

The Clintons are the 800 lb gorilla in the Democratic field and as long as Hillary Clinton is running for President it is difficult to see how anybody else ends up with the nomination. But while that assertion holds true, there is no question that Hillary's grip on the nomination has slipped these last 12 months, and she is not as much the lock she was a year ago.

What is really fascinating when gaming out the Clinton's strategy to win back the White House is how they deal with the very real possibility of a McCain nomination. And really the only way Hillary Clinton can "deal" with a McCain nomination and still preserve her White House options is NOT to run in 2008.


Obama is clearly the hottest thing to hit the Democratic Party and the Washington media in a long time, which means he is a clear threat to the Clintons' dominance of the party.



If Hillary passes up her '08 opportunity because of a calculated decision she is a loser to John McCain in a general election, she does not want to have to face a red-hot and primed Obama in the 2012 primaries. Better to let Obama get his shot in 2008 and have him go down against McCain.




The Shifting 2008 Landscape (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/10/the_shifting_2008_landscape.html)

[Sid]

But few Democrats can disguise their excitement at Mr Obama’s meteoric rise. “Barack Obama is like a rock star – he is so fresh,” said Larry Sabato, head of the political centre at the University of Virginia. “Most of the rest of the field look like the Rolling Stones.”

Confirmation of Mr Obama’s rising stock came last week when a Fox News poll showed Mr McCain beating Mr Obama by only two points in 2008, compared with a five-point margin over Mrs Clinton. However, Mrs Clinton still retains a lead over Mr Obama among Democratic voters.

Among the remaining Democratic potentials, John Edwards, the losing 2004 vice-presidential contender, is the most popular. His scepticism on globalisation could make him a formidable contender in the next two years.




Eyes turn to 2008 presidential prize (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/4494284c-6eb2-11db-b5c4-0000779e2340.html)

[Sid]

But few Democrats can disguise their excitement at Mr Obama’s meteoric rise.



The laundry is already being hung out:





Mr. Obama’s relationship with wheeler-dealer Tony Rezko has surfaced. Mr. Rezko was recently indicted for alleged kickback schemes involving another other inspirational Illinois Democrat, Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Obama says he regrets a land deal he made with Rezko, even though he insists there was no impropriety.

Maybe there’s not, but he needs to work on his story.

The senator told the Chicago Sun-Times that he’s known Tony Rezko for years, having lunch with him probably once or twice a year. When Obama decided to buy a $1.65 million mansion in Chicago last year, he approached Rezko who “developed an interest” and purchased adjoining land.

The closing on the properties took place the same day. The Obamas paid $300,000 less than the asking price; the Rezkos paid the full price. A few months later, Obama, wanting to increase the size of his backyard, bought a strip of Rezko’s property for $104,500.

As the Sun-Times story noted: “The transaction occurred at a time when it was widely known that Tony Rezko was under investigation by U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald and as other Illinois politicians befriended by Rezko distanced themselves from him.”

The senator estimates that Mr. Rezko raised between $50,000 to $60,000 for Obama’s campaign. Moreover, he personally gave the candidate $11,500, which the senator has since donated to charity.



More . . . (http://www.chronwatch.com/content/contentDisplay.asp?aid=24910)